The more things change… November 21, 2009
Posted by richard in : History , add a commentTWO decades ago, the car industry was in a recession, too. 1991 was a year of depression, sales shrinkages and dealer drama.
Sound familiar? Well, looking at the news of the day, the parallels extend far further than that. Yearly sales were around 1.8 million, well down on the all-time record of 2.3 million in 1989. Rather similar to this year’s prediction, too.
This led, explained Autocar & Motor’s David Sutherland, to ‘plant idling’ – shutting plants down for weeks and months on end. Honda, Nissan and MINI will be familiar with this.
He also looked at a few individual brands, rating their performance over the year.
Ford used to claim 30 percent, but the maker was suffering, mainly because of the rubbish Escort. 25 percent was the total experts said it would have to put up with (today, Ford commands 17.5 percent. There’s a difference).
Rover (remember them?) was still doing well – the Brit-built Metro was brilliant, as were the 200 and 400. Even the archaic Maestro and Montego were finding homes in large lease and daily rental fleets, albeit with massive discounts.
Citroen was on the up, with the ZX bringing market share up to around 3.5-4 percent. Again, oddly similar to what it holds today. Funnily, expert Garel Rhys noted the firm’s pricing throughout the ‘80s was competitive, ‘and it will have to beep up the aggressive marketing strategy’…
BMW was pleased: here is where the 3 Series really started its shift to the mainstream, with the launch of the E36. Sutherland reckoned the biggest problem would be getting enough right-hookers.
‘It’s a good time to launch a small car because in this recession a lot of people are considering down-sizing,’ said a BMW GB chief.
Lest we forget, Japanese makers were still selling under quotas, meaning they were cushioned against the recession. Nissan was the largest: it could sell 6 percent of the UK market total. Interesting, and not long to last.
But, today and quota-free, is there really that much difference in volumes? Toyota has 5 percent, Nissan has 3.2 percent, Mazda has 2.3 percent…
There were differences, though. In 2009, it’s been scrappage-boosted private buyers who have kept the market up. Company car drivers did that in 1991 – retail sales were knocked by price rises and high interest rates. The latter isn’t a factor now, and scrappage has reduced the impact of the latter.
18 years ago seems like only yesterday, yet you’d still think there would be huge changes in the UK market. And, with no Rover and more makers eating into Ford’s share, there have indeed been.
Still, though, the framework remains intriguingly familiar…
If Ford played chess, don’t take it on
Why scrappage is now inevitable
Ford gloom hides people carrier revolution?
Peugeot car ads give the game away May 23, 2009
Posted by richard in : News clues , add a commentI used to run a Peugeot 308 as a long-termer. Fine car, it was. Interior better built than a Golf, peachy HDi engine, and one of the nicest dial packs around.
Cost £20k, though. Bit much, I used to think, for a family hatch.
Ah, how things change. Now, 18 months on, 308s are a fair bit cheaper. Well, according to my local dealer they are. £11,995, they’ll do you one for. That’s £3700 off list – brand new.
This is cheap. And good. Unless you’re Peugeot.
See, last year, Peugeot told me they weren’t selling as many 407s, because everyone was downsizing, into 308s.
Fair enough, I thought. With prices like that, you’ll still be able to maintain profits.
But, if dealers are willingly offering ‘scrappage x2’ to customers before they even walk through the door – on new, unregistered (the ad states this – no pre-reg here) 308s, what does that say for the car’s fortunes?
Contrast this with the 107, a car so very much on the money. The saving there is £1k – which, conveniently, is exactly what the Government is asking car makers to put in to the new car scrap scheme.
In short, up to now, Peugeot’s easily sold 107s. But 308s have proven a fair bit trickier. Hence the respective savings.
The 207 sits somewhere in the middle of these two, which sounds about right to me, too. All of which means I’ve devised a new test.
You don’t need to look at SMMT figures. Find out which cars are doing well, and which aren’t by scanning the dealer offers in the local paper, instead. I’ll do this for a few weeks, then get onto the SMMT, and see how right I am…
Why car scrappage is now inevitable
Car world news on your doorstep?
If Ford played chess, don’t take it on May 23, 2009
Posted by richard in : Uncategorized , 2commentsHEAVENS, I’m admitting something here. That I used to be in Chess Club at College.
OK, not for long. And I did used to put Breeders tapes (yes, tapes) on in the background. But, partake I did. Which is why I know Ford is like a member of said Club.
The feared member. The Club player I never dared play. The champ, the whizz, the one who nobody could beat – his moves were like a perfectly-placed onslaught of brilliance from the off. The git.
Bit like Ford right now (well, apart from the git bit).
Market share is booming. The right cars are flying out of the showrooms just at the right time. The dealers find they’re still able to make all the right noises for customers.
Checkmate, rivals.
It’s almost momentous, Ford happening to launch the brand-new, brilliant, bedazzling Fiesta and pretty decent Ka, just as the country enters a major recession and switches wholesale (well, 35 percent or so, according to the SMMT) to superminis.
Think of the Blue Oval right now just as we thought of the St Georges Cross flag seller, in the 2002 World Cup. Yes, him, on the beach in the Costa del Sol right now.
Is this by chance or design? Did Ford foresee changing market conditions? Did it intentionally make the Fiesta so damn great because it KNEW the market was switching this way?
Whatever, it’s working. Historically so. Mainstream is back in vogue, and the blue collar’s fave is reaping the benefits.
Damn, it’s good. You won’t catch me taking it on. Now, where’s me Breeders tape…
The most depressing engines in esistance: Ford 1.8D
Ford gloom hides people carrier revolution?
Weller does a MINI Silverstone gig
What I learnt… from Fleet News, 20 March 2009 March 20, 2009
Posted by richard in : What I learned today , add a commentSo far, new car sales have fallen by 28 percent. The new car market is predicted to fall from over 2 million new car sales, to 1.7 million sales, or less.
Yet the SMMT says it could be boosted by 250,000 sales in an 18-month period by a new car scrappage scheme.
It would have to incorporate nearly new green cars to be of any benefit, though, a leasing company boss told Fleet News. Surprisingly, he said this would have to cover cars up to four years old.
This would stimulate the used car market and thus boost the new car market.
But, isn’t the used market already thriving, as buyers seek extra value? Aren’t car auctions seeing record results and a shortage of stock? I think he’s barking up the wrong tree here.
… Fleet sales once accounted for over half the new car market. Now, due to the recession, it’s down to 44.8 percent. Retail sales are, relatively, booming, taking 55.2 percent.
This is despite reports that retail customers are sitting tight, waiting for the Government to decide on a scrappage scheme. If it comes, I’d expect the proportion to become even more skewed.
… Those fields of cars we keep seeing on the news are just an illusion. Actually, fleet bosses say, there are not loads of cars sitting ready to go. So, huge fleet discounts are not on the table. One chief told Fleet News that swingeing cutbacks by car makers last year have slashed inventories.
… Car makers making the best of the recession include Ford, whose market share is approaching 20 percent – a massive increase on 15 percent last year. French makers are struggling, though. Citroen has 2.8 percent, Peugeot 3.8 percent (down from 6.1 percent) and Renault just 2.7 percent (down from 5.7 percent).
